85 MPs risk losing seats over IR35 changes

Eighty-five MPs are at serious risk of losing their seats in Parliament at the next, possibly imminent General Election, if they do not back contractors over Government's controversial plans to extend the Off-Payroll rules into the private sector.

According to research by contracting authority ContractorCalculator, of the 85 MPs, Zac Goldsmith, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening and Anna Soubry are amongst the top 20 Tory MPs who are vulnerable.

The results are based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and contractor sentiment indicated by a previous ContractorCalculator survey of circa 2,000 contractors which found that 49 per cent would vote against their local MP at the next election if their MP were to support the Off-Payroll rules.

This 49 per cent figure has been applied to the number of expected self-employed voters to ascertain the number of critical votes; a sum which exceeds the majority margin by which 85 MPs claimed their seats in 2017 – in many cases significantly so.

Dave Chaplin of ContractorCalculator said: "Failure to secure the self-employed vote would prove catastrophic for all parties involved. There is also potentially a lot to gain for some, but those in precarious positions will have to act swiftly and earnestly to win over contractors' trust.

"Of the vulnerable MPs, there are 40 Conservative and 24 Labour politicians and the Conservatives appear to have a lot more to lose than Labour. The recent Off-Payroll (IR35 in the private sector) announcement, and multiple draconian measures before it, won't have done those vulnerable Tory MPs any favours, as they now face an uphill task if they want to save their seats.

"Although Labour has a lot of vulnerable seats, this is still a massive opportunity to make further ground on the Conservatives, which it often criticises for targeting more vulnerable individuals with its tax collecting measures. For MPs who are prepared to back up Labour's arguments by opposing the draconian Off-Payroll regime, any potential General Election caused from a collapse in Government from Brexit could prove very fruitful.

"Self-employment is on the rise and the self-employed vote will prove crucial to either party's fortunes at the next election. I would suggest that no party ignores the needs of these important voters."

Top 10 Conservative IR35 political casualties

Zac Goldsmith, Richmond Park

Royston Smith, Southampton, Itchen

Derek Thomas, St Ives

Stephen Kerr, Stirling

Theresa Villiers, Chipping Barnet

Amber Rudd, Hastings and Rye

Jackie Doyle-Price, Thurrock

Stephen Crabb, Preseli Pembrokeshire

Matthew Offord, Hendon

Stuart Andrew, Pudsey

Top 10 Labour IR35 political casualties

Emma Dent Coad, Kensington

Laura Smith, Crewe and Nantwich

Ian Austin, Dudley North

Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme

Rosie Duffield, Canterbury

John Grogan, Keighley

David Drew, Stroud

Gerard Killen, Rutherglen

John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness

Thelma Walker, Colne Valley