General Election: the runners and riders

For anyone planning to burn the midnight oil and watch the election results unfold, here's a quick guide to the key times; the key seats and the key indicators.

Parliament

The last Parliament (with a total of 659 seats) had a Labour majority of 167.

The breakdown is:

• Labour - 408
  
• Tories - 162
  
• Lib Dems - 55
  
• Scots Nat - 5
  
• Plaid - 4
  
• Others - 25

The new Parliament will consist of 646 seats. A total of 324 is needed for an absolute majority.

A seven per cent swing to Tories would mean a Hung Parliament. A 10.3 per cent swing to Tories would give a Tory win. They need to gain 159 seats to form a majority.

If Labour loses 77 seats its majority will be gone.

There will be no election in Staffordshire South as one of the candidates (Lib Dem) died a week before polling day. A by-election will have to be held in the coming weeks.

Ministers

Ministers at risk of losing their seats include:

• Melanie Johnson (Welwyn Hatfield 1,196)
  
• Jacqui Smith (Redditch 2,484)
  
• Ruth Kelly (Bolton West 5,518)
  
• Stephen Twigg (Enfield Southgate 5,546)

Tories

Frontbench Tories at risk include:

• Oliver Letwin (Dorset West 1,414)
  
• David Davis (Haltemprice & Howden 1,903)
  
• Tim Collins (Westmorland and Lonsdale 3,147)
  
• Theresa May (Maidenhead 3,284)

Michael Howard (Folkestone and Hythe) has a majority of 5,907.

Big names bowing out:

Some of the 'big names' who aren't standing for re-election include:

John Hume, Brian Mawhinney, Michael Portillo, Tam Dalyell, Teddy Taylor;

Jack Cunningham; Virginia Bottomley, Gillian Shepherd, Paul Boateng,

Estelle Morris, Chris Smith, Ann Taylor, Helen Liddell, Tony Banks, Alice Mahon, Brian Sedgemore, Donald Anderson, Archie Norman, Sidney Chapman, Paul Tyler

Declaration times

Some key indicator seats will be declared early. Here's what to expect and when.

• 11.30 - Houghton & Washington East, Sunderland North and Sunderland South - all safe Labour seats
  
• 00.00 - Birmingham Edgbaston - If Tories take this from Labour they are on for becoming the largest party
  
• 00.30 - Putney - Labour majority of 2,772 - their 41st most vulnerable seat.
  
• 01.00 - At this point, there should be about 150 results in. Barking (Margaret Hodge) and Blackburn (Jack Straw), Bolton West (Ruth Kelly), Oldham East and Saddleworth (if Lib Dems fail to take this from Labour, it's looking like a poor evening for them), Cheadle (the most marginal seat in the country)
  
• 01.15 - Sedgefield - Tony Blair
  
• 01.30 - Maidenhead (Theresa May), Keighley (where BNP leader Nick Griffin is standing)
  
• 01.45 - Kensington and Chelsea (Malcolm Rifkind)
  
• 02.00 - By this point more than half the seats should have declared. Wantage (to note if retiring Tory MP Robert Jackson's defection to Labour has dented his majority of 5,600), Beverley & Holderness (Tory majority of 781 from Labour), Monmouth (Labour's 4th most marginal seat, so if they hold it, big majority on the way), Normanton (Ed Balls), Bethnal Green and Bow (Oona King v George Galloway)
  
• 02.30 - Wyre Forest (UK's sole independent MP, Dr Richard Taylor 17,630), Erewash (Kilroy Silk standing)
  
• 03.00 - By now, nearly 500 seats will have declared. Watford (current Labour majority of 5,555. If Tories win it, they are looking on to form the Government), also Teignbridge - Boris Johnson's father, Stanley
  
• 03.30 - Dorset West - Oliver Letwin
  
• 03.45 - Arundel and South Downs - Howard Flight's former seat
  
• 04.00 - Folkestone and Hythe (Michael Howard) and Dorset South (Labour's most marginal seat with a maj of 153 - failure to capture by the Tories will be a disaster for them)
  
• 21.00 - Newry and Armagh - the last seat to declare

Marginals

Most marginal seat is Cheadle, held by Lib Dems with a majority of 33.

• Top 20 Labour seats most at risk from the Tories
  Dorset South (majority 153) - Tory candidate is Ed Matts - claim to fame - the doctored picture of Ann Widdecombe and him.
  
  Dumfries and Galloway (141)
  Braintree (358)
  Monmouth (384)
  Lancaster and Wyre (481)
  Kettering (665)
  Northampton South (885)
  Welwyn Hatfield (1,196)
  Shipley (1,428)
  Clwyd West (1,115)
  Bexleyheath and Crayford (1,472)
  Milton Keynes North East (1,829)
  Hornchurch (1,482)
  Selby (2,138)
  Hammersmith and Fulham (2,015)
  Thanet South (1,792)
  Forest of Dean (2,049)
  Wellingborough (2,355)
  Ilford North (2,115)
  Rugby and Kenilworth (2,877)
• Labour seats most at risk from the Lib Dems
  Cardiff Central (659)
  Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch (1,134)
  Oldham East and Saddleworth (2,726)
  Birmingham Yardley (2,576)
  Aberdeen South (3,931)
  Rochdale (5,655)
  Cambridge (8,579)
  Blaydon (7,809)
  Edinburgh North and Leith (8,569)
  Hornsey and Wood Green (10,614)
  Islington South and Finsbury (7,280)
• Tory seats most at risk from Lib Dems
  Taunton (235)
  Orpington (269)
  Surrey South West (861)
  Dorset West (1,414)
  Haltemprice and Howden (1,903)
  Isle of Wight (2,826)
  Eastbourne (2,154)
  Wells (2,796)
  Westmorland and Lonsdale (3,147)
  Totnes (3,597)
  Wiltshire North (3,878)
  Maidenhead (3,284)
  Dorset North (3,797)
  New Forest East (3,829)
  Bournemouth East (3,434)
  Westbury (5,294)
  Ryedale (4,875)
  Harborough (5,252)
  Worcestershire West (5,374)
  Norfolk South (6,893)
  Tiverton and Honiton (6,284)
• Tory seats that could go Labour if some Lib Dems switch to Labour
  Boston and Skegness (515)
  Beverley and Holderness (781)
  Bedfordshire South West (776)
  Basingstoke (880)
  Castle Point (985)
  Upminster (1,241)
  Canterbury (2,069)
  Bury St Edmunds (2,503)
• Labour seats at risk from Nationalists
  Dundee East (496)
  Ochil and South Perthshire (821)
  Ynys Mon (800)